One will win, We still Lose

Five down, now where do we go?

We are down to two candidates left in the ring for the State House seat: Emory Dunahoo and Bobby Banks.  The race turned out to be very interesting.  Let’s take a look at the fallout:

If we award the Gold, Silver and Bronze for winning a precinct, then Todd and Emory took the most Golds at 5 with Bobby placing 3rd at 4.  Yardley is the only other Gold winner with 1 precinct.  The Silver leader was Bobby with 5, followed by Emory with 4 and Yardley and Todd with 2 each.  The Bronze winner was Sonny Sykes in a landslide with 8, followed by Emory with 4 and Todd and Yardley with 2 each.

There is a lot of ways to parse the data.  If we look at the average finish by precincts, then Emory was the winner with a 2.266 average and there is a tie for second between Bobby and Todd with an average finish of 2.533.  Coming in dead last was Dominic with an average finish of 6.6; fortunately his 4th place finish in his own precinct helped him out.

We know that Bobby and Emory won the day to make the next round, but I think there are a few other awards that need be handed out:

The GOTV award (Get out the Vote) goes to Todd W. Reed.  His voting precinct, Oakwood III, had the second highest percentage to turnout.  The highest percentage was Morgan III, but they had 2 candidates stirring up voters (Banks and Sykes).

I thought about giving the “The stay at home” award goes to Kris Yardley and Paul Wayne (I’m not a serial killer) Godfrey because their precinct only had an average turnout; but I am afraid that it was trumped by Dominic Ottaviano.  Dom’s precinct, Friendship I, had the lowest turnout at 11.83% of any of the candidates even though the Village of Deaton Creek votes there and they are notoriously good voters.

The “best positioned for the next step” award goes to Todd W. Reed.  If the State House maps remain unchanged, Todd will be in a good position to take an incumbent out.  Todd won Flowery Branch I, Oakwood II, Oakwood III and placed second in Wilson I; all of these will be in the 29th District currently represented by Carl Rogers.  This looks bad for Yardley and Godfrey who also live in the 29th, especially when you consider that Todd won their precinct.

If you look at district 30 (Currently the 25th formally held by James Mills), we have Emory and Bobby in the runoff (Sonny Sykes also lives in that district).  The winner, especially if it is close, may face another challenge in the spring when they have to run again.  When you consider that they will lose 9 of the 15 precincts they currently have, it will be a new race; but with Oakwood I, Friendship III, Morgan I, Morgan II, Morgan III and Candler remaining, Emory has a 55% to 45% lead going into next summer’s primary.  It looks like he will be adding favorable territory as well.  If Bobby wins, I can almost guarantee that Emory will be back in the race come April.

That leaves the 103 district.  Dominic is the only person who currently lives in the new 103.  The problem, however, is that he has only had exposure in two of these precincts where he finished 4th and 6th.

While I was a bit surprised by the outcome of this election, the runoff will be interesting.  Will either candidate go negative like Dominic?  How will they be able to get their people out to vote again?  I get the feeling that there were a number of people that went to the polls expecting to be able to vote on alcohol, only to find that there was only the one seat to vote for.  Either way, I am waiting for my 1st mailer.

Hugh Hall County Akston

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